{"id":961,"date":"2022-06-18T23:56:22","date_gmt":"2022-06-18T15:56:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.giovannaguevara.net\/?page_id=961"},"modified":"2025-11-15T05:37:27","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T21:37:27","slug":"bart-ridership","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/blog.giovannaguevara.net\/?page_id=961","title":{"rendered":"Warriors Parade: Top 10 BART Ridership"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

It seems Ploty is no longer available, so in the future (maybe winter break 2025) I’ll be integrating visualizations for these findings using a different platform. You can still check out my project and analyses details on my GitHub!<\/p>

—<\/span><\/p>

Sports-associated events account for 8\/10 (maybe 9?) top-ridership dates for BART (list and links to articles citing events and dates are below chart). I still have not (conclusively) determined catalyst for #10 on Oct. 2, 2019; I’ll be looking more closely at the by-station counts to determine stations of interest and further investigate – if you have any tips, let me know! However, ridership (~188k) on June 20, 2022 for the\u00a0<\/span>Warrior’s 2022 championship parade<\/a>\u00a0(first one since move Chase Center in SF) DID NOT make Top 10, barely on the scale of mean Saturday ridership (189k) pre-shutdowns.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

The\u00a0daily<\/em>\u00a0data compiled are from\u00a0bart.gov<\/a>, where\u00a0hourly<\/em>\u00a0exit counts at each stations are summed for total count. Further visualization of long-term trends is presented as well, including precipitous drop and extremely low ridership since 2020.\u00a0<\/p>

Check out my<\/span>\u00a0GitHub for this project<\/a>\u00a0for code used to request, clean,\u00a0<\/span>plot data<\/a>\u00a0(including ridership quartiles by day of week) and preliminary forecast models (I used\u00a0<\/span>Facebook’s Prophet<\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>Linkedin’s Greykite<\/a>\u00a0and standard ARIMA; as a t<\/span>rue time-series model, the changes were better captured.\u00a0Prophet<\/em>\u00a0and\u00a0Greykite<\/em>\u00a0are built as standard linear regerssors parameters and coefficients to model holidays, seasons, weekends, etc.<\/span><\/p>

Last updated Nov 2025<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

TOP 10 Ridership Days<\/h1><\/div>
  1. Oct 31, 2012\u00a0SF Giants Parade & Halloween<\/a><\/li>
  2. Jun 16, 2015\u00a0Warriors Parade, Oakland<\/a><\/li>
  3. Feb 5, 2016\u00a0Super Bowl L Village<\/a><\/li>
  4. Jun 15, 2017\u00a0Warriors Parade, Oakland<\/a><\/li>
  5. Oct 31, 2014\u00a0SF Giants Parade & Halloween<\/a><\/li>
  6. June 16 2018\u00a0Warriors Parade, Oakland<\/a><\/li>
  7. Feb 2, 2016\u00a0Super Bowl L Village<\/a><\/li>
  8. Aug 29, 2013\u00a0Bay Bridge multi-day closure<\/a>\u00a0for (new) eastern span<\/a><\/li>
  9. Feb 3, 2016\u00a0Super Bowl L Village<\/a><\/li>
  10. Oct 2, 2019\u00a0??? Oakland A’s AML wildcard Game 6\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ol><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

    However, BART ridership was declining prior<\/em> to COVID, since about 2018: click and hold to select a section in which to zoom for more detail on trends.The spike in mid-2022 is indeed ridership on June 20, 2022, the day of the parade, but the far below even weekend ridership before March 2020.\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

    \n\t\t\t\t
    \n\t\t\t